Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/Archive 2
Bets are out: Will we have an Epsilon this year? Since there are only Tomas, Virginie and Walter left, do we see Epsilon this season? How are the odds? --88.102.101.245 15:32, October 29, 2010 (UTC) :I highly doubt we will pass Beta, if we even get that far. The season is definitely dieing down, but I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope we get to Alpha! Yqt1001 17:54, October 29, 2010 (UTC) I personally think we'll stop right on the edge of the list. We're wrapping up October with five storms for that month, so I'd say two storms (Virginie and Walter) would be logical for November this year. --HurricaneMaker99 20:49, October 31, 2010 (UTC) :I have a question to ask the WMO - should they extend the Atlantic list now like they did with the Pacific list in the 1980's? This year and next year could both reach the Greek alphabet, but adding an "X","Y", and "Z" name would prevent that from happening in the future... It's a reccomendation, but not neccesary by all means. Ryan1000 20:11, November 4, 2010 (UTC) ::My personal guess based only on gut feeling is that we'll get one more storm, Virginie. If not, I think we could either stop where we are at Tomas, or get to Walter. But I don't feel like we're going to see any Greeks this year. --Patteroast 10:22, November 5, 2010 (UTC) :::Either way this season will go down as the season with the lowest hurricane-to-BOREDOM ratio ever. Hurricane Season 2010 more like Hurricane Season 20-RECURVES!! Nice try "mother nature" but this season only demonstrates your incompetence. Yawn heh heh *snort* 178.63.148.43 14:19, November 22, 2010 (UTC) Why a Dead 2010 Does it matter whether or not this season had a truckload of U.S. landfalls? No one can bustcast about 2010 anymore because the season's 6 days to done, and we well met the predictions of the season. It was on the high end of NOAA's 14-20 storm August forecast, above the middle of their pre-season 14-23 storm forecast, and 2010 was one storm and two hurricanes ahead of CSU's start-of season forecast. Besides, even if the U.S. didn't get hammered, Mexico most certainly did, as did Newfoundland, South Texas, Jamacia, and St. Lucia, although to a much lesser extent than Mexico. But it doesn't matter anymore because this year still was, worldwide, one of the quietest in history. Matter of fact, thus far the SHem has had only 18 storms in 2010, one of their least active seasons on record. The NIO had 5, 2 of which were strong category 4's, so they were well in the average range - the WPac 14-8-4-1, the quietest season on record in terms of NS's and typhoons; the EPac had 7-3-2-1, also the least active in NS's and hurricanes - but the Atlantic somehow was well above average. The number of storms in the 2010 AHS is more than what the entire WPac had in 2010! That's incredibly unusual, being only a second time on record, after 2005. In total numbers(thus far, but with only 37 days left, may be the final stats), the SHem's 18, plus the NIO's 5, plus the Pacific's 21, plus the Atlantic's 19... That's only 63 storms worldwide in this year. 63. Unbelievable. Just unbelievable. 1977 had 60, and in worldwide numbers, they were the least active season on record. 2010 did not beat that record low mark, but it very well did make for the lowest since. Ryan1000 20:27, November 24, 2010 (UTC) :Ryan, I was just noticing the same thing. The incredible, near-record activity in the Atlantic has masked record-shattering inactivity everywhere else. The East Pacific set a record low with just seven named storms. Just three of those were hurricanes, that's a record (although two of those were major hurricanes, including a Cat 5, let alone, both in June). The West Pacific needs a three-storm December to avoid setting their own record. At least one of those needs to be a typhoon to avoid setting another record. Their four major typhoons would tie 1977's record low. If you include Anita, the South Atlantic storm that formed in March, 20 storms have formed in the Atlantic this year. That's one fewer than the East and West Pacific combined. Those are normally the world's two most active basins. We've had just 66 storms worldwide so far this year (including the one that formed just this morning in the southern Indian Ocean)...and this is giving a few storms the benefit of the doubt. This time last year, we'd had 79 (finishing with 84). The 30-year average is 87. And that's not to mention the southern hemisphere. We've had just 35 hurricanes worldwide this year, and only that many thanks to the Atlantic's 12, tied for the second most on record. 1977's record is 28, but there were probably 2-3 more that were missed. We may struggle to get to 70 storms this year. Without the Atlantic's near-record year, 1977 wouldn't be nearly so safe. And I need a whole nother paragraph to talk about the Atlantic's incredible activity. Throw in the wild winter weather we had early this year, and it has been really wacky weather year. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 01:53, November 30, 2010 (UTC) The only thing I can't find an explanation to is, how can the Atlantic basin go downright donkers while every other basin epically fails? The Southern hemisphere this year was less active than last year. 19 storms in the entire SHEM? That's equal to the entire Atlantic basin, and the yearly average of just the South Pac. and SWIO combined. The Atlantic basin wasn't able to save the worldwide dead in 2010, but the only reason 2009 was able to reach "near normal" standards was because last year's Pacific Ocean seasons weren't knocked out for 7/10 of the entire year. And I agree, if the Atlantic had turned up like 2009 or 2006 this year, 1977's record low would probrably be shattered. Even so, 2010, as I mentioned before, won't be long forgotten by me, and I hope it won't be forgotten by anyone out there, because even though there were no U.S. landfalls in 2010 AHS, and worldwide, this year epically failed, looking at the impacts on land, 2010 AHS had over 260 deaths attributed to it as well as 11.3 billion in damage. The EPac wasn't very active at all in 2010, but 2.14 billion and 561 deaths makes it the costliest season since 1997, deadliest since 1982, costlier and deadlier than every other EPac season thus far in the 21st century combined, and the deadliest tropical cyclone season worldwide in 2010(i'm doubting the 1,100 deaths in Haiti were from Tomas; they were related to the cholera outbreak, not directly from him). The WPac was record dead in 2010, but 300+ deaths and a couple billion in damage is impressive enough on it's own, let alone Super Typhoon Megi being the strongest WPac storm since 1992's Gay, the strongest worldwide storm in 2010, and strongest worldwide since Wilma in '05 AHS. The NIO had 5 storms, 2 of which were very powerful category 4's, and hundreds of deaths and nearly a billion in damages makes it quite a year, too. Can you find an explanation as to why the Atlantic epically won but everyone else epically failed, Eric? If not, I will be pursuing that mystery for a long time to come. 2010 was even deader than last year, so to speak, but the only reason we didn't beat 1977 was because the Atlantic went downright nuts in 2010. If it didn't, 1977 would most certainly be beaten by this year. This discussion will go on for probrably as long as say... "The retirements at a glance" section above. Everyone should be shocked at this. And the ACE factor? 2010 AHS had 160(not as much as 2004 or 2005, more than 2008), but take that in comparison to the Pacific, let alone the rest of the NHem or the world, and the ACE in the 2010 AHS is just absolutely incredible. Ryan1000 11:56, November 30, 2010 (UTC) Possible Post-Season Changes? Since this forum has lost all of its activity I want to know whats your opinions on any possible post season category increase or decrease? Richard has already been upgraded from a cat 1 to a cat 2 so far, but is there any other possibilities? I'd like to think Igor will become a cat 5 and Alex will be upgraded to a cat 3. Yqt1001 21:52, December 12, 2010 (UTC) :I don't really know what to say about all of the changes post-season; I personally think Igor will be kept as a 4 and Alex as a strong two, but if I had to put a number on it? I would say Matthew's damage will be signifigantly reduced, and there might be some slight changes to the intensities of hurricanes this year. I think people here should be paying atention to the "Why a dead 2010" section just above. Although the Atlantic hurricane season this year had epically won, my big question about this year is how can the Atlantic basin go downright donkers when every other basin was choked to record-low activity? There were 20 storms in the Atlantic this year - including Anita, the Southern Atlantic storm in March. There were 33 hurricanes in the entire year of 2010, 12 from the Atlantic alone, and 66 storms worldwide, 19 from the Atlantic alone. The ACE in the 2010 AHS was not as high as 1995, 2004, or 2005, but it was above 2008, and the most unbelievable thing was the fact that the ACE in this year's AHS was higher than the ACE in the entire EPac and WPac combined. That's the most unbelievable thing I've ever seen. If the Atlantic shared everyone else's fate in 2010, 1977 would not have been the least active season on record anymore, being beaten by this year. 2009 was only 3 storms behind the 30-year long term average wheras this year was absurdly behind the long-term average. The main reason this was was because the 2009 EPac and WPac seasons weren't so knocked out. 2009 PHS has 20-8-5-1. That's the most active season in terms of named storms since 1992. The WPac was only 3 storms behind the long term last year, but this year they were more than ten storms behind the long term average. This year's PHS was the least active on record for NS's and H's, and was 13 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes behind 2009. It surprises me as to how mother nature can do her things... Although 2010 was one of the quietest years on record worldwide, it did not mean at all that it was not notable by any means. The Atlantic hurricane season had 260 or so deaths and 11.4 billion in damage. The damage alone puts 2010 AHS on at least the top 10 costliest seasons in history. The PHS had 423 deaths and over 1.6 billion in damage. That makes it one of the costliest and deadliest seasons on record and the deadliest tropical cyclone season worldwide in 2010, a first for that basin. The WPac and NIO basins were also rather notable ones, as was the southern Pacific, but the SWIO and Australian regions weren't so bad. It goes to show that a quiet season does not imply an insevere season for landfalls and impact...Andrew. I don't know how this kind of year had managed to happen, but I am studying why this was... Ryan1000 22:37, December 12, 2010 (UTC) ::Well..there doesnt seem to be people here anymore, and moving the "Why a Dead 2010" section to here isnt really helpful either.... :P Yqt1001 17:33, December 13, 2010 (UTC) :::On top of intensity, there's one thing I noticed that I wonder if it'll get mentioned in a TCR: upon looking at satellite loops, it almost seems like Shary's formation may have been aided by Richard (the trough that developed Shary gained a LOT of activity during the time Richard was active, it "broke off" around when Richard became a hurricane, and from there, you can track the activity until the point when Shary formed). Just an observation though. Jake52 19:39, December 13, 2010 (UTC) :::EDIT: I looked at a loop at [1]. Around October 20 (when Richard formed), the trough gained a large amount of activity, but the break-off can be seen on October 22-23 (during the night). Right before the break-off, one final area of cloudiness forms just northeast of the Bahamas. Judging by satellite from that point on, that area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas just before the "link" was broken was pre-Shary (and it can be seen to nearly dissipate on October 26 before regaining shower activity). I could be wrong though. Jake52 19:56, December 13, 2010 (UTC) ::I can't be certain as to what the TCR's will say, or what will be said about the formation dates of storms(I strongly think Paula existed 12 hours or so earlier) but when it comes to retirees, this year has many storms up for it(and apparently everyone cares about that). If we can somehow get 5 retirees this year, then it will be in my hall of fame for retirees; 2005 also had 5, but for a season with more storms than ever. I don't really know why anyone would say Karl's not "100% gone", because although Mexico has a bad track record for retirement(particularly when it comes to EPac storms), when it comes to 5+ billion dollar names like Karl, it's hard to deny it's retirement from it's impact and public outcry. Igor and Karl are most certainly goners, and the others are toss-ups(Matthew and Nicole), Probrably(Alex and Tomas), or no(everyone else). I made the "Why a dead 2010" section above because I wanted to hear what everyone's opinion's are when it came to the worldwide season scale. 2005 was an incredibly active AHS, but the Pacific fared fine in that year, and this year, the Atlantic won but everyone else failed. In 2009, everyone was near average or slightly below average, but nothing like this season was. It appears not everyone wants to worry about the worldwide dead in 2010 from what i've seen in many days, but it's a really remarkable feature, and it deserves credit. I don't know what it could be signifying for future seasons, but we've gone through enough after the past decade, and after this year, I have a feeling next year could be a helluva ride for us, no U.S. hurricanes in 3 years, and no majors or east coast landfalls in SIX. That's a long luck streak on our part, but it won't last very long, at least I don't think it will... Ryan1000 20:15, December 13, 2010 (UTC)